Description

This analysis provides a forecast of TRB prices using a Seasonal ARIMA model with Box-Cox transformation. The forecast includes different scenarios:

The confidence levels used are 68%, 95%, and 99.7%, which means there is a corresponding probability that the actual price will fall within the Bear and Bull case range for each confidence level.

The purpose of this model is to help investors understand potential future price movements and make informed decisions based on different market scenarios.

Bear_0.997 Bear_0.95 Bear_0.68 Base Bull_0.68 Bull_0.95 Bull_0.997
2025-11-30 12.189698 14.941820 18.010891 21.664218 25.870740 30.538634 36.085487
2025-12-07 7.993787 11.418035 15.678864 21.269513 28.303809 36.750774 47.541012
2025-12-14 5.910521 9.560408 14.511272 21.498426 30.865501 42.740278 58.654123
2025-12-21 4.194537 7.667210 12.782320 20.499298 31.440340 45.968795 66.232575
2025-12-28 3.377832 6.853825 12.336783 21.062675 33.983636 51.754130 77.284836
2026-01-04 2.702638 6.081870 11.777160 21.305805 35.985856 56.818535 87.537230
2026-01-11 2.213723 5.501175 11.395723 21.715517 38.182531 62.196785 98.404740
2026-01-18 1.858580 5.076037 11.186909 22.333498 40.681260 68.080953 110.192573
2026-01-25 1.447721 4.416800 10.439422 21.937586 41.515171 71.504311 118.539895
2026-02-01 1.191195 4.020227 10.104091 22.185906 43.354780 76.476277 129.300340
2026-02-08 0.923345 3.505333 9.438272 21.743854 43.983240 79.575552 137.350438
2026-02-15 0.694039 3.001139 8.692748 21.044450 44.083839 81.804012 144.115940
2026-02-22 0.580913 2.804892 8.621234 21.708968 46.734300 88.433385 158.250959
2026-03-01 0.431440 2.422572 8.048113 21.310351 47.476390 92.043525 167.912861
2026-03-08 0.341481 2.196373 7.799967 21.539401 49.357884 97.595060 180.821338
2026-03-15 0.230950 1.807592 7.033155 20.538769 48.830717 99.040794 187.176923
2026-03-22 0.188887 1.690144 6.976327 21.102988 51.329854 105.744876 202.270709
2026-03-29 0.147563 1.541666 6.793013 21.346480 53.202301 111.425158 215.855687
2026-04-05 0.117522 1.428244 6.687593 21.756800 55.424531 117.797349 230.776083
2026-04-12 0.096185 1.348415 6.669943 22.375693 58.102567 125.074196 247.418629
2026-04-19 0.066881 1.169649 6.270087 21.979198 58.637212 128.500519 257.650718
2026-04-26 0.050885 1.072551 6.128725 22.227883 60.538913 134.476076 272.386689
2026-05-03 0.033723 0.924788 5.749043 21.785179 60.910536 137.626841 282.337213